Electoral Scoreboard 2012

Gott and Colley's Median Poll Statistics
J. Richard Gott, III, is a professor of Astrophysical Sciences at Princeton Univeristy
Wesley N. Colley is a senior research scientist at the Center for Modeling, Simulation and Analysis at the University of Alabama in Huntsville

last updated: 2012–11–06
  • Gott and Colley Nail 2004 Election, Missing Only Hawaii
  • Gott and Colley Predict 2008 Election Within Only 2 Electoral Votes
  • Method Explained
  • Paper in Mathematical and Computer Modeling
  • Huntsville Times Article 2012, (Updated Oct. 25) ... 2008

    • Notes: (1) Polls on or before May 29, the day that Romney clinched the nomination, will no longer be considered, since it was not known who the Republican nominee would be before that time. If no such poll is availalble, we will default back to the 2008 election results. (2) Nebraska apportions 3 of its 5 electoral votes by Congressional district. Despite McCain's solid victory in the state in 2008, Obama won one district and therefore one electoral vote. We reflect that fact in our count and cartogram.
    Final Prediction for 2012 Election 11/06/2012 7:42 AM CST
    Obama304, Romney234, Toss-Up0
    Poll data gathered from Real Clear Politics. Predictions based on Gott & Colley's Median Method.

    Today's Results

    StateEVRecordMedian PollStatus
    Alaska  3  0–1–0  37.89–59.42 2008 McCain
    Alabama  9  0–1–0  38.74–60.32 2008 McCain
    Arkansas  6  0–1–0  31–58
    Arizona  11  1–2–0  46–53
    California  55  6–0–0  53.5–39
    Colorado  9  9–7–1  47–46
    Connecticut  7  8–0–0  54–41
    District Of Columbia  3  1–0–0  92.46–6.53 2008 Obama
    Delaware  3  1–0–0  61.91–36.93 2008 Obama
    Florida  29  7–17–2  48–49
    Georgia  16  0–3–0  43–51
    Hawaii  4  2–0–0  60–33
    Iowa  6  9–4–2  49–47
    Idaho  4  0–1–0  27–63
    Illinois  20  3–0–0  57–41
    Indiana  11  0–3–0  41–51
    Kansas  6  0–1–0  41.55–56.48 2008 McCain
    Kentucky  8  0–1–0  39–53 latest (2012-09-13)
    Louisiana  8  0–1–0  37–53
    Massachusetts  11  10–0–0  57–39.5
    Maryland  10  2–0–0  57.5–36
    Maine  4  4–0–0  49–40
    Michigan  16  10–1–1  51.5–46.5
    Minnesota  10  11–1–0  47.5–41
    Missouri  10  0–7–0  43–54
    Mississippi  6  0–1–0  36–54
    Montana  3  0–5–0  43–53
    North Carolina  15  0–9–4  48–51
    North Dakota  3  0–3–0  40–54
    Nebraska  5  0–2–0  40.5–54
    New Hampshire  4  11–4–4  50–49
    New Jersey  14  6–0–0  51–40.5
    New Mexico  5  3–0–0  49–39
    Nevada  6  12–0–1  48–45
    New York  29  3–0–0  61–35
    Ohio  18  28–3–6  49–47
    Oklahoma  7  0–1–0  33–59
    Oregon  7  3–0–0  47–41
    Pennsylvania  20  13–0–1  50–45.5
    Rhode Island  4  1–0–0  54–33
    South Carolina  9  0–1–0  44.9–53.87 2008 McCain
    South Dakota  3  0–1–0  44.75–53.16 2008 McCain
    Tennessee  11  0–1–0  34–59
    Texas  38  0–1–0  38–54
    Utah  6  0–1–0  25–70
    Virginia
    (toss-up broken)*    		  13  8–8–2  47.5–47.5
    Vermont  3  1–0–0  62–25 latest (2012-08-21)
    Washington  12  7–0–0  55–42
    Wisconsin  10  14–0–2  49.5–46.5
    West Virginia  5  0–1–0  33–54 latest (2012-10-02)
    Wyoming  3  0–1–0  32.54–64.78 2008 McCain
    * The Virginia toss-up has been broken by referring back to the original position of the state before the conventions. This method was the most successful at breaking toss-ups in 2004 and 2008.

    Cartogram

    Tracker

    DateResults
    2012-11-06  Obama 304, Romney 234, Toss-Up 0
    Note that Virginia remains formally tied (8-8-2), but we have broken the tie*.
    2012-11-05  Obama 291, Romney 234, Toss-Up 13
    2012-11-04  Flip: VA (13) from Romney to Toss-Up
     Obama 291, Romney 234, Toss-Up 13
    2012-11-03  Obama 291, Romney 247, Toss-Up 0
    2012-11-02  Flip: CO (9) from Romney to Obama
     Obama 291, Romney 247, Toss-Up 0
    2012-11-01  Flip: NH (4) from Toss-Up to Obama
     Obama 282, Romney 256, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-31  Obama 278, Romney 256, Toss-Up 4
    2012-10-30  Flip: NH (4) from Obama to Toss-Up
     Obama 278, Romney 256, Toss-Up 4
    2012-10-29  Flip: NH (4) from Toss-Up to Obama
     Obama 282, Romney 256, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-28  Obama 278, Romney 256, Toss-Up 4
    2012-10-27  Flip: NH (4) from Obama to Toss-Up
     Obama 278, Romney 256, Toss-Up 4
    2012-10-26  Flip: NH (4) from Toss-Up to Obama
     Flip: VA (13) from Obama to Romney
     Obama 282, Romney 256, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-25  Flip: NH (4) from Obama to Toss-Up
     Obama 291, Romney 243, Toss-Up 4
    2012-10-24  Obama 295, Romney 243, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-23  Flip: CO (9) from Toss-Up to Romney
     Obama 295, Romney 243, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-22  Flip: CO (9) from Obama to Toss-Up
     Flip: FL (29) from Toss-Up to Romney
     Obama 295, Romney 234, Toss-Up 9
    2012-10-21  Flip: FL (29) from Obama to Toss-Up
     Obama 304, Romney 205, Toss-Up 29
    2012-10-20  Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-19  Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-18  Flip: NC (15) from Toss-Up to Romney
     Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-17  Obama 333, Romney 190, Toss-Up 15
    2012-10-16  Obama 333, Romney 190, Toss-Up 15
    2012-10-15  Flip: NC (15) from Obama to Toss-Up
     Obama 333, Romney 190, Toss-Up 15
    2012-10-14  Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-13  Flip: NC (15) from Toss-Up to Obama
     Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-12  Flip: NC (15) from Obama to Toss-Up
     Obama 333, Romney 190, Toss-Up 15
    2012-10-11  Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-10  Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-09  Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-08  Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-07  Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-06  Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-05  Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-04  Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-03  Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-02  Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-01  Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-30  Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-29  Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-28  Flip: NC (15) from Toss-Up to Obama
     Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-27  Obama 333, Romney 190, Toss-Up 15
    2012-09-26  Flip: NC (15) from Romney to Toss-Up
     Obama 333, Romney 190, Toss-Up 15
    2012-09-25  Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-24  Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-23  Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-22  Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-21  Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-20  Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-19  Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-18  Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-17  Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-16  Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-15  Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-14  Flip: FL (29) from Toss-Up to Obama
     Flip: VA (13) from Romney to Obama
     Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-13  Obama 291, Romney 218, Toss-Up 29
    2012-09-12  Flip: FL (29) from Romney to Toss-Up
     Flip: VA (13) from Toss-Up to Romney
     Obama 291, Romney 218, Toss-Up 29
    2012-09-11  Obama 291, Romney 234, Toss-Up 13
    2012-09-10  Obama 291, Romney 234, Toss-Up 13
    2012-09-09  Obama 291, Romney 234, Toss-Up 13
    2012-09-08  Flip: IA (6) from Toss-Up to Obama
     Obama 291, Romney 234, Toss-Up 13
    2012-09-07  Flip: VA (13) from Obama to Toss-Up
     Obama 284, Romney 235, Toss-Up 19
    2012-09-06  Obama 297, Romney 235, Toss-Up 6
    2012-09-05  Flip: FL (29) from Obama to Romney
     Obama 297, Romney 235, Toss-Up 6
    2012-09-04  Flip: NC (15) from Toss-Up to Romney
     Obama 326, Romney 206, Toss-Up 6
    2012-09-03  Obama 326, Romney 191, Toss-Up 21
    2012-09-02  Obama 326, Romney 191, Toss-Up 21
    2012-09-01  Flip: NC (15) from Romney to Toss-Up
     Obama 326, Romney 191, Toss-Up 21
    2012-08-31  Obama 326, Romney 206, Toss-Up 6
    2012-08-30  Obama 326, Romney 206, Toss-Up 6
    2012-08-29  Flip: IA (6) from Romney to Toss-Up
     Obama 326, Romney 206, Toss-Up 6
    2012-08-28  Obama 326, Romney 212, Toss-Up 0
    2012-08-27  Obama 326, Romney 212, Toss-Up 0
    2012-08-26  Obama 326, Romney 212, Toss-Up 0
    2012-08-25  Obama 326, Romney 212, Toss-Up 0
    2012-08-24  Obama 326, Romney 212, Toss-Up 0
    2012-08-23  Flip: FL (29) from Toss-Up to Obama
     Obama 326, Romney 212, Toss-Up 0
    2012-08-22  Obama 297, Romney 212, Toss-Up 29
    2012-08-21  Obama 297, Romney 212, Toss-Up 29
    2012-08-20  Obama 297, Romney 212, Toss-Up 29
    2012-08-19  Flip: FL (29) from Obama to Toss-Up
     Obama 297, Romney 212, Toss-Up 29
    2012-08-18  Obama 326, Romney 212, Toss-Up 0
    2012-08-17  Obama 326, Romney 212, Toss-Up 0
    2012-08-16  Obama 326, Romney 212, Toss-Up 0
    2012-08-15  Flip: CO (9) from Toss-Up to Obama
     Flip: IA (6) from Toss-Up to Romney
     Obama 326, Romney 212, Toss-Up 0
    2012-08-14  Obama 317, Romney 206, Toss-Up 15
    2012-08-13  Flip: CO (9) from Obama to Toss-Up
     Obama 317, Romney 206, Toss-Up 15
    2012-08-12  Obama 326, Romney 206, Toss-Up 6
    2012-08-11  Flip: IA (6) from Obama to Toss-Up
     Flip: IN (11) from Obama to Romney
     Flip: NC (15) from Obama to Romney
     Obama 326, Romney 206, Toss-Up 6
    2008-11-04  Obama 358, McCain 180, Toss-Up 0
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