Electoral Scoreboard 2012

Gott and Colley's Median Poll Statistics
J. Richard Gott, III, is a professor of Astrophysical Sciences at Princeton Univeristy
Wesley N. Colley is a senior research scientist at the Center for Modeling, Simulation and Analysis at the University of Alabama in Huntsville

last updated: 2012–11–06

  • Gott and Colley Nail 2004 Election, Missing Only Hawaii
  • Gott and Colley Predict 2008 Election Within Only 2 Electoral Votes
  • Method Explained
  • Paper in Mathematical and Computer Modeling
  • Huntsville Times Article 2012, (Updated Oct. 25) ... 2008

  • Notes: (1) Polls on or before May 29, the day that Romney clinched the nomination, will no longer be considered, since it was not known who the Republican nominee would be before that time. If no such poll is availalble, we will default back to the 2008 election results. (2) Nebraska apportions 3 of its 5 electoral votes by Congressional district. Despite McCain's solid victory in the state in 2008, Obama won one district and therefore one electoral vote. We reflect that fact in our count and cartogram.
    Final Prediction for 2012 Election 11/06/2012 7:42 AM CST
    Obama304, Romney234, Toss-Up0
    Poll data gathered from Real Clear Politics. Predictions based on Gott & Colley's Median Method.

    Today's Results

    StateEVRecordMedian PollStatus
    Alaska  3  010  37.8959.42 2008 McCain
    Alabama  9  010  38.7460.32 2008 McCain
    Arkansas  6  010  3158
    Arizona  11  120  4653
    California  55  600  53.539
    Colorado  9  971  4746
    Connecticut  7  800  5441
    District Of Columbia  3  100  92.466.53 2008 Obama
    Delaware  3  100  61.9136.93 2008 Obama
    Florida  29  7172  4849
    Georgia  16  030  4351
    Hawaii  4  200  6033
    Iowa  6  942  4947
    Idaho  4  010  2763
    Illinois  20  300  5741
    Indiana  11  030  4151
    Kansas  6  010  41.5556.48 2008 McCain
    Kentucky  8  010  3953 latest (2012-09-13)
    Louisiana  8  010  3753
    Massachusetts  11  1000  5739.5
    Maryland  10  200  57.536
    Maine  4  400  4940
    Michigan  16  1011  51.546.5
    Minnesota  10  1110  47.541
    Missouri  10  070  4354
    Mississippi  6  010  3654
    Montana  3  050  4353
    North Carolina  15  094  4851
    North Dakota  3  030  4054
    Nebraska  5  020  40.554
    New Hampshire  4  1144  5049
    New Jersey  14  600  5140.5
    New Mexico  5  300  4939
    Nevada  6  1201  4845
    New York  29  300  6135
    Ohio  18  2836  4947
    Oklahoma  7  010  3359
    Oregon  7  300  4741
    Pennsylvania  20  1301  5045.5
    Rhode Island  4  100  5433
    South Carolina  9  010  44.953.87 2008 McCain
    South Dakota  3  010  44.7553.16 2008 McCain
    Tennessee  11  010  3459
    Texas  38  010  3854
    Utah  6  010  2570
    Virginia
    (toss-up broken)*
     13  882  47.547.5
    Vermont  3  100  6225 latest (2012-08-21)
    Washington  12  700  5542
    Wisconsin  10  1402  49.546.5
    West Virginia  5  010  3354 latest (2012-10-02)
    Wyoming  3  010  32.5464.78 2008 McCain
    * The Virginia toss-up has been broken by referring back to the original position of the state before the conventions. This method was the most successful at breaking toss-ups in 2004 and 2008.

    Cartogram

    Tracker

    DateResults
    2012-11-06  Obama 304, Romney 234, Toss-Up 0
    Note that Virginia remains formally tied (8-8-2), but we have broken the tie*.
    2012-11-05  Obama 291, Romney 234, Toss-Up 13
    2012-11-04  Flip: VA (13) from Romney to Toss-Up
     Obama 291, Romney 234, Toss-Up 13
    2012-11-03  Obama 291, Romney 247, Toss-Up 0
    2012-11-02  Flip: CO (9) from Romney to Obama
     Obama 291, Romney 247, Toss-Up 0
    2012-11-01  Flip: NH (4) from Toss-Up to Obama
     Obama 282, Romney 256, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-31  Obama 278, Romney 256, Toss-Up 4
    2012-10-30  Flip: NH (4) from Obama to Toss-Up
     Obama 278, Romney 256, Toss-Up 4
    2012-10-29  Flip: NH (4) from Toss-Up to Obama
     Obama 282, Romney 256, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-28  Obama 278, Romney 256, Toss-Up 4
    2012-10-27  Flip: NH (4) from Obama to Toss-Up
     Obama 278, Romney 256, Toss-Up 4
    2012-10-26  Flip: NH (4) from Toss-Up to Obama
     Flip: VA (13) from Obama to Romney
     Obama 282, Romney 256, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-25  Flip: NH (4) from Obama to Toss-Up
     Obama 291, Romney 243, Toss-Up 4
    2012-10-24  Obama 295, Romney 243, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-23  Flip: CO (9) from Toss-Up to Romney
     Obama 295, Romney 243, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-22  Flip: CO (9) from Obama to Toss-Up
     Flip: FL (29) from Toss-Up to Romney
     Obama 295, Romney 234, Toss-Up 9
    2012-10-21  Flip: FL (29) from Obama to Toss-Up
     Obama 304, Romney 205, Toss-Up 29
    2012-10-20  Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-19  Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-18  Flip: NC (15) from Toss-Up to Romney
     Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-17  Obama 333, Romney 190, Toss-Up 15
    2012-10-16  Obama 333, Romney 190, Toss-Up 15
    2012-10-15  Flip: NC (15) from Obama to Toss-Up
     Obama 333, Romney 190, Toss-Up 15
    2012-10-14  Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-13  Flip: NC (15) from Toss-Up to Obama
     Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-12  Flip: NC (15) from Obama to Toss-Up
     Obama 333, Romney 190, Toss-Up 15
    2012-10-11  Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-10  Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-09  Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-08  Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-07  Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-06  Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-05  Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-04  Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-03  Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-02  Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-10-01  Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-30  Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-29  Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-28  Flip: NC (15) from Toss-Up to Obama
     Obama 348, Romney 190, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-27  Obama 333, Romney 190, Toss-Up 15
    2012-09-26  Flip: NC (15) from Romney to Toss-Up
     Obama 333, Romney 190, Toss-Up 15
    2012-09-25  Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-24  Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-23  Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-22  Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-21  Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-20  Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-19  Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-18  Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-17  Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-16  Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-15  Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-14  Flip: FL (29) from Toss-Up to Obama
     Flip: VA (13) from Romney to Obama
     Obama 333, Romney 205, Toss-Up 0
    2012-09-13  Obama 291, Romney 218, Toss-Up 29
    2012-09-12  Flip: FL (29) from Romney to Toss-Up
     Flip: VA (13) from Toss-Up to Romney
     Obama 291, Romney 218, Toss-Up 29
    2012-09-11  Obama 291, Romney 234, Toss-Up 13
    2012-09-10  Obama 291, Romney 234, Toss-Up 13
    2012-09-09  Obama 291, Romney 234, Toss-Up 13
    2012-09-08  Flip: IA (6) from Toss-Up to Obama
     Obama 291, Romney 234, Toss-Up 13
    2012-09-07  Flip: VA (13) from Obama to Toss-Up
     Obama 284, Romney 235, Toss-Up 19
    2012-09-06  Obama 297, Romney 235, Toss-Up 6
    2012-09-05  Flip: FL (29) from Obama to Romney
     Obama 297, Romney 235, Toss-Up 6
    2012-09-04  Flip: NC (15) from Toss-Up to Romney
     Obama 326, Romney 206, Toss-Up 6
    2012-09-03  Obama 326, Romney 191, Toss-Up 21
    2012-09-02  Obama 326, Romney 191, Toss-Up 21
    2012-09-01  Flip: NC (15) from Romney to Toss-Up
     Obama 326, Romney 191, Toss-Up 21
    2012-08-31  Obama 326, Romney 206, Toss-Up 6
    2012-08-30  Obama 326, Romney 206, Toss-Up 6
    2012-08-29  Flip: IA (6) from Romney to Toss-Up
     Obama 326, Romney 206, Toss-Up 6
    2012-08-28  Obama 326, Romney 212, Toss-Up 0
    2012-08-27  Obama 326, Romney 212, Toss-Up 0
    2012-08-26  Obama 326, Romney 212, Toss-Up 0
    2012-08-25  Obama 326, Romney 212, Toss-Up 0
    2012-08-24  Obama 326, Romney 212, Toss-Up 0
    2012-08-23  Flip: FL (29) from Toss-Up to Obama
     Obama 326, Romney 212, Toss-Up 0
    2012-08-22  Obama 297, Romney 212, Toss-Up 29
    2012-08-21  Obama 297, Romney 212, Toss-Up 29
    2012-08-20  Obama 297, Romney 212, Toss-Up 29
    2012-08-19  Flip: FL (29) from Obama to Toss-Up
     Obama 297, Romney 212, Toss-Up 29
    2012-08-18  Obama 326, Romney 212, Toss-Up 0
    2012-08-17  Obama 326, Romney 212, Toss-Up 0
    2012-08-16  Obama 326, Romney 212, Toss-Up 0
    2012-08-15  Flip: CO (9) from Toss-Up to Obama
     Flip: IA (6) from Toss-Up to Romney
     Obama 326, Romney 212, Toss-Up 0
    2012-08-14  Obama 317, Romney 206, Toss-Up 15
    2012-08-13  Flip: CO (9) from Obama to Toss-Up
     Obama 317, Romney 206, Toss-Up 15
    2012-08-12  Obama 326, Romney 206, Toss-Up 6
    2012-08-11  Flip: IA (6) from Obama to Toss-Up
     Flip: IN (11) from Obama to Romney
     Flip: NC (15) from Obama to Romney
     Obama 326, Romney 206, Toss-Up 6
    2008-11-04  Obama 358, McCain 180, Toss-Up 0

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