I-AA Grouping System
The Colley Matrix system, as applied to college football from 2001 to 2006,
did not account for I-AA teams whatsoever. This stance was based upon the
idea that good I-A teams who might be of relevance to the BCS should not
lose to I-AA teams, and as such, I-AA could be rightly ignored.
However, 2006 saw the expansion of the schedule from 11 games to 12 games.
In response to this addition of a 12th game, many I-A teams have
added I-AA teams to their schedules. The significantly higher number
of I-A vs. I-AA games has created three problems for the complete
exclusion of I-AA results. First, a larger fraction of results are
ignored. Second, the increased competition between the two divisions
has increased the parity between them, making I-AA victories more likely.
Third, the larger number of games makes the previously "flukish" win by
a I-AA more likely, just statistically. These three issues demand that
a good ranking system for I-A somehow account for the games against I-AA.
The Colley Matrix has addressed this problem in a straight-forward way
that does not change the fundamental mathematics of the Colley Matrix
rankings system. Here is how it works.
- Selecting only games involving two I-AA teams, rank the I-AA teams
using the normal Colley Matrix system.
- Form groups of I-AA teams.
- Determine the average number of games played by I-A teams.
- Starting at the top of the ranked list of I-AA teams, begin
adding to the group until the number of games that group has
played against I-A is about the same number of games most I-A teams
have played so far this season.
- When the group is "full," move to the next group and repeat
previous step.
- Avoid the problem that the last group may be underpopulated by
iteratively "demoting" teams from other groups until the distribution
of I-A games played by each I-AA group is fairly even.
- We now have groups of I-AA teams that have played about the same
number of games against I-A as most I-A teams have played this season.
- Add these groups into the list of I-A teams.
- Rank the I-A teams plus the I-AA groups as normal with the Colley
Matrix ranking system.
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Wesley N. Colley